US Democratic System Might Not Survive One More Year – Is Europe Ready for This Eventuality?
Authoritarianism is often imagined with a specific appearance: black-clad, synchronized, and menacing. It is not supposed to resemble an overweight leader who has difficulty saying everyday terms and rambles regarding renovating United Nations buildings with marble rather than terrazzo. But as the philosopher Umberto Eco observed in his influential essay about the persistent character of authoritarian rule, “Life is not so straightforward. Eternal Fascism may resurface under the most innocent of disguises.”
Historians and Former Officials Recognize the Danger
Historians, researchers, and even some former Trump administration staffers have recognized beyond the farci cal exterior. They observe in Donald Trump and his allies the philosopher's core criteria: the appeal to tradition and dismissal of rationality, fear of diversity, hostility toward disagreement, bitterness, machismo, deterioration of language into newspeak, and the cult of a “powerful” leader. Nearly a twelve months past, historian an expert on fascism explained his reasons for revised his view regarding applying the term to characterize this political movement, remarking: “It's emerging up from below in very worrisome manners, and that is quite like the early fascisms. It is the real thing. It really is.”
Actions Undermining Democratic Norms
Since then, the presidential administration has utilized the American armed forces and state militias contrary to the will of local leaders. They have pressured local governments to strip voting rights from opposition voters through unprecedented ways, and considered ending mail-in voting to exclude voters residing outside. It has employed government authority to censor literature, intimidate the media, and “silence” entertainers who ridicule the president. It has appropriated presidential authority in disturbing and potentially illegal ways, such as applying tariffs, immigration policy, and targeted exemptions to generate subservience among corporate actors.
Excessive focus on the legality of actions overlooks the forest for the trees: legality is, practically speaking, whatever the highest court rules. If the supreme court acquiesces to radical alterations in the character of the US, this represents merely one more sign of how deep the rot extends.
From specific measures to the decision to publicly venerate the Confederacy, the planned trajectory is clear.
Revealing the Truth
The disguise fell more after the killing of Charlie Kirk – one more tragic incident in the merging of firearm incidents and growing political violence. At his bizarre funeral-rally, Stephen Miller delivered an address filled with the very elements the philosopher warned about, ranting against an ambiguous “them” who “do not understand of the force they've ignited in all of us”. “You amount to nothing,” the speaker continued. “You have nothing. You represent evil. You are jealousy. You are resentment. You are hatred. You are nothing. You create nothing. You achieve nothing.”
European Reaction: From Denial to Negotiation
In the past year, as Trump and his allies have dismantled US democratic institutions rapidly, the European discourse at last shifted from denial to efforts at bargaining, including a degree of acceptance of American withdrawal and apathy going forward. However there's been almost no room for a top-tier, public conversation about what to do if the American administration is, in the near term, in the hands of individuals hostile to the EU’s core purpose and its principles.
It's clear why European leaders are reluctant to address this issue openly with voters. They fear that offending Trump, even slightly, could result him to remove American backing for Ukraine. The most astute think they can delay by flattering Trump, manipulating him just long enough to find a stronger position, whereas the blindly optimistic look to the upcoming elections as an inflection point, and some sort of “restoration of normality”. But those elections won't rescue the situation. As legal expert a Democratic lawyer detailed for The New Yorker, the 2026 elections are likely to be less than completely democratic, and even where they are, the president's past actions of insurrection suggests that the results could easily not be honoured. And, Trump is already preparing to drop the country completely onto Europe's shoulders.
Interpreting Statements Seriously
In the first Trump administration, we heard, repeatedly, that the president ought to be regarded earnestly, but not literally. That was a error at the time, and it’s a error today. When Trump states, “I despise my opponent and I don’t want what's best for them”, we in Europe (“a foe,” remember?) should take him literally. The extreme authoritarian agenda the Trump administration is implementing domestically matters to the EU. An America with a covert, secret immigration police with nearly unlimited funds, whose “conservative” administration sends its armed forces to “blue” urban centers, and employs the criminal justice system to exact retribution on political opponents at the president’s behest – essentially, the demise of the rule of law – necessarily impacts European democracy. Not least, because the US government is waging a culture war against Europe, supporting forces that aim to destroy it in its present form.
EU Citizens Ahead of Leaders
European voters are out in front of the politicians regarding this matter. The spring Eurobarometer survey indicated that large majorities desire the EU to safeguard them from crises and threats, think the bloc requires additional funding to achieve this, and favor fresh resources provided by the union collectively, instead of national governments individually. A survey of the largest EU nations – the French Republic, Germany, the Kingdom of Spain, the Italian Republic, and the Republic of Poland – revealed that a majority think the European Union was humiliated in the latest agreement with the US. They blame the EU executive for not “defending” Europe more ardently, with a significant portion of 39% wanting the bloc to become more resistant to Trump.
Timothy Garton Ash lately gave US citizens 400 days to rescue their democracy. As an American, it seems unlikely the nation has that long. For Europeans, it's prudent to presume that it does not.
EU residents are ready for a frank discussion about the challenge Europe faces from the US administration – the same way they’ve solidified against aggression from the Russian leader. The danger stems from EU officials equivocating, hesitating, and avoiding this conversation. If they cannot lead with candour, voters will decide that EU governance and its structures are too weak to endure the pincer move that is developing opposing it.