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In October 2022, as Rishi Sunak took over as British prime minister, he was the fifth consecutive UK leader to take up the position in six years.

Triggered in the UK by Britain's EU exit, this signified unprecedented political turmoil. So how might we describe what is unfolding in France, now on its fifth premier in two years – with three in the past 10 months?

The current premier, the newly reinstated Sébastien Lecornu, may have secured a temporary reprieve on Tuesday, sacrificing Emmanuel Macron’s flagship pensions overhaul in exchange for support from Socialist lawmakers as the cost of his government’s survival.

But it is, at best, a temporary fix. The EU’s second-largest economy is locked in a ongoing governmental crisis, the scale of which it has not witnessed for many years – perhaps not since the establishment of its Fifth Republic in 1958 – and from which there appears no easy escape.

Minority Rule

Essential context: from the moment Macron initiated an ill-advised snap general election in 2024, the nation has had a divided assembly split into three opposing factions – the left, far right and his own centrist coalition – without any group holding a clear majority.

Simultaneously, the nation faces twin financial emergencies: its national debt level and budget shortfall are now nearly double the EU threshold, and strict legal timelines to pass a 2026 budget that at least begins to rein in spending are approaching.

Against that unforgiving backdrop, both the prime ministers before Lecornu – Michel Barnier, who lasted from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who took office from December 2024 to September 2025 – were removed by parliament.

In September, the president appointed his trusted associate Lecornu as his latest PM. But when, a little over two weeks ago, Lecornu presented his government team – which turned out to be much the same as the old one – he encountered anger from both supporters and rivals.

So much so that the next day, he resigned. After only 27 days as premier, Lecornu became the shortest-lived premier in modern French history. In a respectful address, he blamed political intransigence, saying “party loyalties” and “certain egos” would make his job virtually unworkable.

A further unexpected development: just hours after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron requested he remain for another 48 hours in a last-ditch effort to salvage cross-party backing – a mission, to put it mildly, filled with challenges.

Next, two of Macron’s former PMs openly criticized the embattled president. Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally (RN) and leftist LFI declined to engage with Lecornu, vowing to reject all future administrations unless there were early elections.

Lecornu stuck at his job, talking to everyone who was prepared to hear him out. At the conclusion of his extension, he appeared on television to say he believed “a path still existed” to prevent a vote. The president’s office confirmed the president would appoint a new prime minister two days later.

Macron kept his promise – and on Friday appointed … Sébastien Lecornu, again. So recently – with Macron commenting from the wings that the country’s rival political parties were “creating discord” and “solely responsible for this chaos” – was Lecornu’s moment of truth. Could he survive – and is he able to approve the crucial budget?

In a high-stakes speech, the young prime minister spelled out his budget priorities, giving the centre-left Socialist party (PS), who oppose Macron’s unpopular pension overhaul, what they were expecting: Macron’s key policy would be suspended until 2027.

With the right-wing LR already on board, the Socialists said they would refuse to support censorship votes proposed against Lecornu by the extremist factions – meaning the government should survive those ballots, scheduled for Thursday.

It is, nevertheless, by no means certain to be able to approve its €30bn austerity budget: the PS explicitly warned that it would be demanding further compromises. “This,” said its head, Olivier Faure, “is only the beginning.”

A Cultural Shift

The problem is, the more Lecornu cedes to the centre-left, the more opposition he'll face from the right. And, like the PS, the right-leaning parties are themselves divided over how to handle the new government – some are still itching to topple it.

A look at the seat numbers shows how difficult his mission – and longer-term survival – will be. A total of 264 deputies from the RN, radical-left LFI, Greens, Communists and UDR seek his removal.

To achieve that, they need a majority of 288 votes in parliament – so if they can convince only 24 of the PS’s 69 deputies or the LR’s 47 (or both) to vote with them, Macron’s fifth precarious prime minister in 24 months is, similar to his forerunners, toast.

Most expect this to occur soon. Even if, by an unlikely turn, the dysfunctional assembly summons up the collective responsibility to pass a budget by year-end, the outlook afterward look bleak.

So does an exit exist? Snap elections would be unlikely to solve the problem: surveys indicate pretty much every party bar the RN would lose seats, but there would still be no clear majority. A new prime minister would face the same intractable arithmetic.

Another possibility might be for Macron himself to resign. After a presidential vote, his replacement would disband the assembly and aim for a legislative majority in the following election. But that, too, is uncertain.

Surveys show the next occupant of the Elysée Palace will be Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella. There is at least an odds-on chance that French electorate, having chosen a far-right leader, might think twice about handing them control of parliament.

In the end, France may not emerge from its quagmire until its politicians acknowledge the changed landscape, which is that decisive majorities are a bygone phenomenon, absolute victory is obsolete, and negotiation doesn't mean defeat.

Numerous observers believe that cultural shift will not be possible under the country’s current constitution. “This isn't a standard political crisis, but a crise de régime” that will endure indefinitely.

“The system wasn't built to encourage – and actively discourages – the formation of ruling alliances common in the rest of Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”