Foreign Office Advised Against Armed Intervention to Overthrow Zimbabwe's Leader

Recently released documents show that the UK's diplomatic corps advised against British military intervention to overthrow the then Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "viable option".

Policy Papers Reveal Deliberations on Handling a "Depressingly Healthy" Dictator

Policy papers from the then Prime Minister's government show officials weighed up options on how best to deal with the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old leader, who refused to step down as the country descended into turmoil and financial collapse.

Faced with Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential options.

Isolation Strategy Deemed Not Working

Officials agreed that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and forging an international consensus for change was not working, having not managed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Courses considered in the documents included:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-engage", the approach supported by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that altering a government and/or its harmful policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The FCO paper rejected military action as not a "serious option," and warned that "The only nation for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be willing to do so".

Warnings of Significant Losses and Legal Hurdles

It warned that military intervention would result in heavy casualties and have "considerable implications" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a severe human and political disaster – resulting in massive violence, large-scale refugee flows, and instability in the region – we judge that no nation in Africa would agree to any efforts to remove Mugabe by force."

The paper adds: "Nor do we judge that any other international ally (including the US) would authorise or join military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Playing the Longer Game Recommended

The Prime Minister's advisor, a senior official, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "will be a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been discounted, "it is likely necessary that we must play the longer game" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair appeared to agree, noting: "We must devise a way of revealing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then subsequently, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a firm agreement."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had recommended critical re-engagement with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

Robert Mugabe was ultimately removed in a military takeover in 2017, at the age of 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure Thabo Mbeki into joining a armed alliance to overthrow Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the ex-British leader.